July 08, 2026
Platner, the Democrats, and WTF?
At the moment I think Platner 'and also' is an industrial accident.
The actual industrial accident is the incident that becomes too obviously destructive for the outsiders and for the internal bureaucracy to dismiss with 'well, we just adjust a bit with the current people and processes'. Then an objective investigation with at least a few outsiders goes 'choices going back years were contributing factors, and look at this fishbone diagram'.
I think but cannot prove that the Democratic Party had a talent shortage in both their 'gu jar' of vicious moron insiders, and in their pool available for candidates.
The comic (1) 'American men are frequently literal Nazis' hypothesis is in the category of 'Democrats are too incompetent at drawing conventional men to trick themselves, but they can still trick themselves that they draw conventional women'. Women and feminism are more vulnerable to preference cascade, if women are more likely than men to voice support for someone they hate and fear instead of quietly leaving. The comic model of American men is also in the category of a really serious modeling problem that they do not know is wrong.
In the conventional theories of 'true societal behavior' in the thinking of each American party, and in what the activists convince themselves to believe, there are dueling conspiracy theories (DCF). In DCF, for a given definition of a conspiracy theory, 'both sides' have a model that is a conspiracy theory, with basically opposite hypotheses about where the secret evil behavior is changing things. This pattern has been developing for at least thirty years.
We've 'known' for ten years that our political polls are unreliable, and we should not be excluding models on the basis of them, and should not be considering ourselves to know statistically what the true American population preferences 'state space' is. For three years, the Democrats have been going hard against the Jews, and by more subtle implication against the Christians.
Every American normal enough to have an intuitive gutcheck of 'this is not the winning side of the fight' is taking a step back at the 'step forward to volunteer' calls of the Democrats.
The fucking trade unions (2) in certain states went, in 2024, 'crooks is not the winning side', and 'importing the illegals is not the way to preserve the trade union status quo'.
This Platner problem is maybe analogous to a company with a manager causing problems by mishandling funds. You can have a company whose senior management is too innocent to have heard of of mishandled funds. You can have a company that is now a criminal enterprise being busted out, in which cause the retained people are selected for not being attentive to accounting controls, and not reporting irregularities. A normal company that is managing those hazards well needs to have a certain amount of the senior management who know what proper controls are, and are sensitive to indications of problems.
Platner basically implies that a lot of Democrat leaders are either themselves personally quite creepy, or are themselves convinced that they can just consensus speech their way through any possible problem. Also, they were stupidly slow to cut loose a candidate that the oppo drops were always pretty sure to destroy. This last is maybe explained by Trent Telenko's irrational regime hypothesis, and that they were sure a month ago that not clapping hard enough would let Tinkerbell and the team down.
PS. I notice that the lack of explicitly saying 'maybe they are just evil' and 'maybe they are just insane' makes me sound Pollyanna. Sometimes bins are too broad to be useful in analysis, or in forecasting attempts.
PPS. https://babylonbee.com/news/democrats-quietly-add-have-you-raped-anyone-to-questionnaire-for-aspiring-candidates Yeah, this was not the problem here.
(1) https://accordingtohoyt.com/2026/07/07/good-afternoon/ I basically agree that the obvious jokes are maybe not likely, but this essay is basically down to not seeing only the alternative that Mary C. notes.
(2) My wording makes it ambiguous. I think supporting Trump in 2024 was the right call, but my baseline is that I hate the trade unions.
The actual industrial accident is the incident that becomes too obviously destructive for the outsiders and for the internal bureaucracy to dismiss with 'well, we just adjust a bit with the current people and processes'. Then an objective investigation with at least a few outsiders goes 'choices going back years were contributing factors, and look at this fishbone diagram'.
I think but cannot prove that the Democratic Party had a talent shortage in both their 'gu jar' of vicious moron insiders, and in their pool available for candidates.
The comic (1) 'American men are frequently literal Nazis' hypothesis is in the category of 'Democrats are too incompetent at drawing conventional men to trick themselves, but they can still trick themselves that they draw conventional women'. Women and feminism are more vulnerable to preference cascade, if women are more likely than men to voice support for someone they hate and fear instead of quietly leaving. The comic model of American men is also in the category of a really serious modeling problem that they do not know is wrong.
In the conventional theories of 'true societal behavior' in the thinking of each American party, and in what the activists convince themselves to believe, there are dueling conspiracy theories (DCF). In DCF, for a given definition of a conspiracy theory, 'both sides' have a model that is a conspiracy theory, with basically opposite hypotheses about where the secret evil behavior is changing things. This pattern has been developing for at least thirty years.
We've 'known' for ten years that our political polls are unreliable, and we should not be excluding models on the basis of them, and should not be considering ourselves to know statistically what the true American population preferences 'state space' is. For three years, the Democrats have been going hard against the Jews, and by more subtle implication against the Christians.
Every American normal enough to have an intuitive gutcheck of 'this is not the winning side of the fight' is taking a step back at the 'step forward to volunteer' calls of the Democrats.
The fucking trade unions (2) in certain states went, in 2024, 'crooks is not the winning side', and 'importing the illegals is not the way to preserve the trade union status quo'.
This Platner problem is maybe analogous to a company with a manager causing problems by mishandling funds. You can have a company whose senior management is too innocent to have heard of of mishandled funds. You can have a company that is now a criminal enterprise being busted out, in which cause the retained people are selected for not being attentive to accounting controls, and not reporting irregularities. A normal company that is managing those hazards well needs to have a certain amount of the senior management who know what proper controls are, and are sensitive to indications of problems.
Platner basically implies that a lot of Democrat leaders are either themselves personally quite creepy, or are themselves convinced that they can just consensus speech their way through any possible problem. Also, they were stupidly slow to cut loose a candidate that the oppo drops were always pretty sure to destroy. This last is maybe explained by Trent Telenko's irrational regime hypothesis, and that they were sure a month ago that not clapping hard enough would let Tinkerbell and the team down.
PS. I notice that the lack of explicitly saying 'maybe they are just evil' and 'maybe they are just insane' makes me sound Pollyanna. Sometimes bins are too broad to be useful in analysis, or in forecasting attempts.
PPS. https://babylonbee.com/news/democrats-quietly-add-have-you-raped-anyone-to-questionnaire-for-aspiring-candidates Yeah, this was not the problem here.
(1) https://accordingtohoyt.com/2026/07/07/good-afternoon/ I basically agree that the obvious jokes are maybe not likely, but this essay is basically down to not seeing only the alternative that Mary C. notes.
(2) My wording makes it ambiguous. I think supporting Trump in 2024 was the right call, but my baseline is that I hate the trade unions.
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